The Four Horsemen of Product Failure
Why do more experienced PMs actually spend more time on the downside?
The reason is simple: the more time you’ve spent in Product Management, the more times you’ve been burned.
The team releases “the” feature that was supposed to change everything for the product — and everything remains the same.
When you reach this stage, product management becomes less about figuring out what new feature could deliver great value, and more about de-risking the choices you have made to deliver the needed impact.
To do this systematically, I recommend considering Marty Cagan’s classical 4 Risks.
𝟭. 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁
Remember Juicero? They built a $400 Wi-Fi-enabled juicer, only to discover that their value proposition wasn’t compelling. Customers could just as easily squeeze the juice packs with their hands.
A hard lesson in value risk.
Value Risk asks whether customers care enough to open their wallets or devote their time. It’s the soul of your product. If you can’t be match how much they value their money or time, you’re toast.
𝟮. 𝗨𝘀𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝗟𝗲𝗻𝘀
Usability Risk isn’t about if customers find value; it’s about whether they can even get to that value.
Can they navigate your product without wanting to throw their device out the window?
Google Glass failed not because of value but usability. People didn’t want to wear something perceived as geeky, or that invaded privacy. Google Glass was a usability nightmare that never got its day in the sun.
𝟯. 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲
Feasibility Risk takes a different angle. It’s not about the market or the user; it’s about you.
Can you and your team actually build what you’ve dreamed up?
Theranos promised the moon but couldn’t deliver. It claimed its technology could run extensive tests with a single drop of blood. The reality? It was scientifically impossible with their tech. They ignored feasibility risk and paid the price.
𝟰. 𝗩𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝗗𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲
(Business) Viability Risk is the “grandmaster” of risks.
It asks: Does this product make sense within the broader context of your business?
Take Kodak for example. They actually invented the digital camera but failed to adapt their business model to this disruptive technology. They held back due to fear it would cannibalize their film business.
This systematic approach is the best way I have found to help de-risk big launches.
To succeed with de-risking, you need to not just identify risk, but eliminate it. Follow this deep dive to learn how.
How do you like to de-risk?
